Quantum computing: Not even close
Enthusiasm for quantum computing comes and goes — this year, it’s way up. Stocks of the most prominent names, IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti Computing, have, on average, doubled in price.
But, the fundamental challenge for all quantum companies hasn’t changed in two decades. They are all trying to get to “scale,” and it’s not clear when, if ever, any of them will.
I’m emphasizing this point because the scaling issue is fundamental to all computing; without scaling, nothing is meaningful.
Scaling means that as a computer gets more complex — basically, bigger — the amount of work the computer can do increases in proportion. The main example is the integrated circuit, which became more and more powerful over six decades, increasing dramatically what could be done, to the point that you now have a supercomputer in your pocket with today’s phones.
Quantum is not there yet. All the companies have shown interesting machines, but none have proven they can scale those machines the way the traditional semiconductor scaled.
Can we pick winners in AI’s memory obsession?
The current infatuation with artificial intelligence has been fixated on the fastest processors that make AI possible, such as Nvidia’s GPU chips, and competing efforts from Advanced Micro Devices and Intel.
It’s clear, however, that the thing that will make or break AI going forward is memory, specifically, the circuits that hold the data that feeds data-hungry AI.
The speed and the energy efficiency of memory circuits such as DRAM have not kept pace with that of “logic” chips such as GPUs, leading to a disconnect: The faster the chips go, the more that memory is holding everything back.
Is that an investment opportunity? Reason dictates it should be. The problem of how to have really big, really efficient memory is one of the key challenges of the AI age. Herewith, some thoughts on how to play the memory race.
For ASML, AI increases everything
An interesting couple of notes appeared over the transom this week regarding Netherlands chip equipment titan ASML Holding, one of the TL20 stocks worth considering.
There was no immediate news event for these notes, just what appeared to be a spontaneous rush to endorse a good company’s stock.
The theme of the notes, you could say, was, Chip making is only getting harder, and that’s always good news for ASML.
In case you’re unfamiliar, ASML makes laser light sources for what’s known as photolithography, where a light is shown through a mask or screen, imprinting a pattern of circuits on the photosensitive layers of a semiconductor wafer such as silicon. That’s how circuits are carved into the wafer to become chips.